Scenarios

What could happen. Disruption ladder · Second Contamination · CKICAS eight-stock ring · government levers · sub-regional gaps.

Disruption ladder

Pick a scenario to see the days-of-cover delta and stock-ring impact.

Second Contamination

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When fuel disruption stops dairy collection, uncollected milk becomes a freshwater hazard. Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) in receiving streams jumps as milk solids decompose. The 'second contamination' is the freshwater hit that follows the fuel hit — invisible to FuelClock-style data layers because it lives in NIWA / regional council water-quality records, not in MBIE petroleum stocks.

Initial in-stream BOD (mg/L)

Waikato 7 mg/L
Southland 16 mg/L
Canterbury 43 mg/L

Higher initial BOD = closer to a stream that cannot self-recover within the disruption window. Canterbury sits at the upper end of the three regions surveyed; Waikato at the lower. The figures are baseline BOD before any milk-spill scenario; the scenario itself adds load on top of these baselines.

v1.1 dynamic inputs required

Live Fonterra regional collection volume (national-monthly is public; sub-regional real-time requires partnership)
Days of disruption (from Tab 1 Supply / Tab 2 Pipeline)
Storage capacity at affected dairy plants
Local stream flow rates (NIWA Hydro Web)

Policy implication: GovernmentResponseOptions on Tab 4 lists levers that buy fuel-stock days. Several of those levers (e.g. odd/even, essential travel) buy days WITHOUT preventing dairy plant disruption — they shift the freshwater hit's timing but do not avoid it. v1.1 will compute that trade-off explicitly.

Eight-stock ring

Sovereign's signature module. The constitutional scaffold of Aotearoa as eight stocks: trust, cohesion, food, energy, transport, governance, biophysical, built-capital. Trust + cohesion are rendered with a dashed border because they are qualitative — not currently measured.

measured qualitative — not currently measured news-driven (fuel risk composite) flow

Government response options

Each lever buys days. Each lever costs something else on the 8-stock ring.

Tier 3 — sub-regional (v1.1 partnership pending)

Sub-regional granularity for Taranaki / Waikato / Canterbury / Southland requires partnership data sources beyond AFI's public-source v0.9. These cards show the gap honestly rather than collapsing the region into national.

Taranaki

v1.1 status: partnership pending — Sovereign owns the approach (Tim, Javed Suliman / Fonterra)
Waikato

v1.1 status: partnership pending — dairy-density-weighted indicator candidate
Canterbury

v1.1 status: partnership pending — irrigation-fuel coupling candidate
Southland

v1.1 status: partnership pending — agribusiness-fuel coupling candidate